EPA Values for the social cost of greenhouse gases
In December 2023, EPA finalized new values for the social cost of greenhouse gases following public comment and expert peer review. EPA’s updated values are the most robust, scientifically-supported, and comprehensive climate-damage estimates currently available, and they represent a huge step forward in our ability to properly value climate effects. In addition to values for carbon dioxide, EPA also provided damage valuations for methane and nitrous oxide.
EPA derived these estimates using the best available science and economics. They follow the recommendations from the National Academies of Sciences, incorporating voluminous peer-reviewed literature, and align with federal guidance on non-market valuation, discounting, and geographic scope. Nonetheless, the valuations remain conservative underestimates because they omit many important climate damages.
As the most up-to-date and reliable estimates currently available, decisionmakers interested in applying a SC-GHG should use these values.
Social Cost of Carbon 1
EPA Final Estimates (2020$ per metric ton of CO2)
| Year of Emissions | 2.5% Discount Rate | 2% Discount Rate 2 | 1.5% Discount Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 120 | 190 | 340 |
| 2025 | 130 | 210 | 360 |
| 2030 | 140 | 230 | 380 |
| 2040 | 170 | 270 | 430 |
| 2050 | 200 | 310 | 480 |
| 2060 | 230 | 350 | 530 |
| 2070 | 260 | 380 | 570 |
| 2080 | 280 | 410 | 600 |
Social Cost of Methane
EPA Final Estimates (2020$ per metric ton of CH4)
| Year of Emissions | 2.5% Discount Rate | 2% Discount Rate 2 | 1.5% Discount Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1,300 | 1,600 | 2,300 |
| 2025 | 1,600 | 2,000 | 2,700 |
| 2030 | 1,900 | 2,400 | 3,200 |
| 2040 | 2,700 | 3,300 | 4,200 |
| 2050 | 3,500 | 4,200 | 5,300 |
| 2060 | 4,300 | 5,100 | 6,300 |
| 2070 | 5,000 | 5,900 | 7,200 |
| 2080 | 5,800 | 6,800 | 8,200 |
Expert Peer Reviewer Feedback on EPA’s SC-GHG
[R]epresents a huge advance in estimating the US Social Cost of Carbon.
Dr. Maureen Cropper, PhD
Professor of Economics, University of Maryland
Former Lead Economist, World Bank
This is a much-needed improvement in estimating the social cost of carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Catherine Louise Kling, PhD
Professor, Cornell University Atkins Center for Sustainability
Member, National Academy of Sciences
It is… technically sound, responsive to a host of comments and inputs since the prior updates under the Obama administration, and generally represents well the emerging consensus in the literature.
Dr. Gernot Wagner, PhD
Climate Economist, Columbia Business School
Senior Fellow, Jain Family Institute
- The social cost of greenhouse gases (or SC-GHG) is often referred to as the social cost of carbon (or SCC) despite the fact that it actually refers to a suite of values that includes separate social costs for carbon dioxide (the social cost of carbon), methane, and nitrous oxide. ↩︎
- Central estimate. ↩︎
- Central estimate. ↩︎
